1308W官方机构预报专帖

yz0330

菲律宾以东的热带扰动93W已经增强为热带低气压08W，为美军编号的西太平洋和南海今年第8个热带气旋。日本东京在上午对系统发出烈风警报（GW），可能在24小时内给系统命名，如是则这将是今年第8号热带风暴“西马仑”。
      
中国北京于下午14时开始对此TD进行编号和追击。本帖转发境内外官方机构对08W的官方预报。
      
站内相关扰动追击帖：西太热带云簇（TCC）追击帖（2013年7-8月）
      
首先是北京
      
ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 160600
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 06 INITIAL TIME 160600 UTC
00HR 15.7N 124.2E 1000HPA 15M/S
P12HR NW 20KM/H
P+24HR 19.1N 120.6E 998HPA 18M/S=
NNNN
      

yz0330

** WTPN31 PGTW 160900 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 124.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 124.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 17.0N 123.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.7N 122.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 20.4N 121.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 22.9N 120.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 28.0N 120.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 34.3N 122.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 123.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//


** WTPN51 PGTW 160900 ***
WARNING    ATCG MIL 08W NWP 130716081908
2013071606 08W EIGHT 003  01 315 04 SATL 060
T000 156N 1242E 025
T012 170N 1232E 030
T024 187N 1222E 035
T036 204N 1212E 045 R034 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD
T048 229N 1203E 050
T072 280N 1206E 035
T096 343N 1228E 020
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 15.6N 124.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 124.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 17.0N 123.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.7N 122.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 20.4N 121.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 22.9N 120.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 28.0N 120.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 34.3N 122.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 123.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.
//
0813071412 143N1283E  15
0813071418 145N1276E  15
0813071500 146N1269E  20
0813071506 146N1260E  20
0813071512 147N1253E  20
0813071518 150N1248E  25
0813071600 153N1245E  25
0813071606 156N1242E  25

yz0330

熱帯低気圧
平成25年07月16日16時15分 発表
<16日15時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
        熱帯低気圧
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 15度05分(15.1度)
        東経 124度30分(124.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)
<17日15時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
予報円の中心        北緯 18度20分(18.3度)
        東経 122度30分(122.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        220km(120NM)

vicente1208

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z --- NEAR 16.3N 123.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 123.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 18.1N 122.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 19.8N 121.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 21.7N 119.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 24.0N 119.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 28.7N 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 34.0N 124.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 123.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
NORTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 161200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z
AND 171500Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
NORTHEASTWARD OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT IS STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A
160854Z PARTIAL SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS POOR
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AS THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION REMAINS
UNORGANIZED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH POSITION FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED
BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TD 08W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING NORTHWEST ON A SOUTHWESTERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36, STAYING JUST SOUTH OF TAIWAN'S
SOUTHERN COAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT
SLIGHTLY AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK INTO EASTERN
CHINA, MAKING LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 72. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE WARM (>28 DEGREES CELSIUS) OPEN WATERS OF
THE LUZON STRAIT. AFTER TAU 36, TD 08W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO
ITS PROXIMITY TO TAIWAN AND EVENTUAL LANDFALL INTO CHINA.
   C. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS EASTERN CHINA, TD 08W IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE A MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK INTO THE YELLOW SEA.
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (<26 DEGREES
CELSIUS), INCREASING VWS AND THE PRIOR LAND INTERACTION WITH CHINA
WILL LEAD TO THE SYSTEMS DISSIPATION BY TAU 96, ALL WHILE BECOMING
ABSORBED INTO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SPANNING ACROSS THE YELLOW SEA.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD WITH TWO DISTINCT
GROUPINGS AND A 300NM SPREAD BY TAU 48 AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING STR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GFS, THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND HWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN COAST OF TAIWAN AND RECURVING
TOWARDS THE KOREAN PENINSULA. NAVGEM, GFDN AND EGRR DRIVE THE SYSTEM
NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL INTO EASTERN CHINA BY TAU 48. DUE TO THIS
LARGE SPREAD, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

kitty8123

命名
   
台風第8号 (シマロン)
平成25年07月17日10時30分 発表

<17日09時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        フィリピンの東
中心位置        北緯 17度40分(17.7度)
東経 122度30分(122.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
15m/s以上の強風域        全域 110km(60NM)

<17日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        バシー海峡
予報円の中心        北緯 19度05分(19.1度)
東経 121度00分(121.0度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧        1000hPa
最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        90km(50NM)

<18日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯 20度20分(20.3度)
東経 119度35分(119.6度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速        30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径        130km(70NM)

<19日09時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        南シナ海
予報円の中心        北緯 21度40分(21.7度)
東経 117度40分(117.7度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        20m/s(40kt)
最大瞬間風速        30m/s(60kt)
予報円の半径        200km(110NM)

<20日09時の予報>
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        華南
予報円の中心        北緯 23度05分(23.1度)
東経 115度30分(115.5度)
進行方向、速さ        西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧        1002hPa
予報円の半径        300km(160NM)

li0627

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 170900 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS CIMARON 1308 (1308) INITIAL TIME 170900 UTC
00HR 20.0N 120.7E 998HPA 20M/S
30KTS 110KM
P12HR NW 22KM/H
P+24HR 23.5N 117.3E 995HPA 23M/S=
NNNN

li0627

07fW21176
中央氣象局  颱風警報單
發    布    時    間：民國102年7月17日17時30分。

警    報    種    類：海上颱風警報。
颱 風 強 度 及 編 號：輕度颱風，編號第8號(國際命名：CIMARON，中文譯名：西馬隆)
警    報    報    數：第4報。
中    心    氣    壓：998百帕。
目    前    時    間：17日17時。
中    心    位    置：北緯 19.9 度，東經 120.6 度，
                      即在鵝鑾鼻的南方約 230 公里之海面上。
暴    風    半    徑：7級風暴風半徑 100 公里，10級風暴風半徑 － 公里。
預 測 速 度 及 方 向：以每小時19公里速度，向西北轉北北西進行。
近 中 心 最 大 風 速：每秒 18 公尺(約每小時 65 公里)，相當於 8 級風。
瞬 間 之 最 大 陣 風：每秒 25 公尺(約每小時 90 公里)，相當於 10 級風。
預    測    時    間：18日17時。
預    測    位    置：北緯 23.2 度，東經 118.2 度，
                      即在鵝鑾鼻的西北西方約 310 公里之海面上。
颱    風    動    態：根據最新資料顯示，第８號颱風目前中心在鵝鑾鼻南方海面，向西北轉北北西移動，暴
                      風圈已進入巴士海峽，對巴士海峽、臺灣海峽及東沙島海面構成威脅。
警 戒 區 域 及 事 項：巴士海峽、臺灣海峽及東沙島海面航行及作業船隻應嚴加戒備。
                      ＊豪雨特報：第８號颱風外圍環流影響，今（１７）日臺東、花蓮山區及恆春半島有局
                      　　　　　　部豪雨發生的機率，臺東、花蓮、宜蘭地區及西半部山區有局部大雨發生
                      　　　　　　的機率，請注意瞬間大雨、雷擊及強陣風。
                      ＊臺灣西南部及東南部沿岸（包含蘭嶼、綠島）、恆春半島及澎湖已有長浪出現，海邊
                      　活動請特別注意。

下次警報預定發布時間為 7月17日20時30分

vicente1208

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 119.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 119.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 21.9N 118.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 23.6N 117.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 25.1N 116.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 119.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND
181500Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (CIMARON) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 08W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED INDICATES
A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BECOME ELONGATED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS WHILE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS STARTED TO DECREASE.
A 171006Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS POOR WHILE THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG
WITH RADAR POSITION FIXES FROM TAIWAN, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE
LLLC REMAINS POORLY DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS
FROM ALL AGENCIES DUE TO THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND
PERSISTENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND RADIAL OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TUTT
CELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS 08W IS STEADILY TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWEST ON THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
SITUATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND MAKE LANDFALL
INTO EASTERN CHINA APPROXIMATELY 200NM NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(>28 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW, SHOULD ALLOW TS 08W TO
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AFTER
WHICH, LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO ITS
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER EASTERN CHINA BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID
CLOSE TO MULI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

yz0330

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 180300 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS CIMARON 1308 (1308) INITIAL TIME 180300 UTC
00HR 22.3N 117.9E 995HPA 20M/S
30KTS 110KM
P12HR NW 17KM/H
P+24HR 24.2N 114.3E 1006HPA 12M/S=
NNNN

yz0330

CMA台风快讯

时    间：        18 日 19 时
命    名：        “ 西马仑 ”， CIMARON
编    号：        1308 号
中心位置：        北纬23.8度、东经117.9度
强度等级：        热带风暴
最大风力：        8 级， 20 米/秒（约 72 公里/时）
中心气压：        995 hPa
参考位置：        福建漳浦的近海海面上。
风圈半径：        七级风圈半径 110 公里
预报结论：        “西马仑”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向偏北方向移动，即将在福建漳浦一带沿海登陆。